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Star Trek To Get Some Big Fat Greek Competition August 20, 2008

by Anthony Pascale , Filed under: Star Trek (2009 film) , trackback

It looks like JJ Abrams Star Trek movie has finally got some direct competition, albeit some ‘counter-programming’ competition. Cinematical is reporting that Fox Searchlight has picked May 8th as the US open date for the romantic comedy My Life in Ruins starring and co-written by Nia Vardalos (My Big Fat Greek Wedding).

 

Wikipedia’s summarizes My Life In Ruin’s plot thusly:

Georgia (Nia Vardalos) is a Greek-American tour guide, who leads an assorted group of misfit tourists around Greece. Tourists who would rather buy a T-Shirt than learn about history. In an hysterical clash of personalities and cultures, everything seems to go wrong. Until one day when a very special tourist, Irv Gordon (Richard Dreyfuss), shows her how to have fun and take a good look at the last person she’d ever expect to find love with….Her quiet and sexy Greek bus driver


Poster for Life in Ruins

One can quickly see that this film is targeting a different audience than the sci-fi effects-heavy Star Trek movie. During the summer it is typical for each weekend to have one action blockbuster and one smaller romantic or family comedy. For example the biggest movie of the year, The Dark Knight actually opened alongside two other films, the family comedy Space Chimps and the romantic musical Mamma Mia. The second biggest movie of the summer, Iron Man, also had its own romantic comedy companion, Made of Honor.

May 2009 shaping up
Star Trek will open in the second weekend of the Summer 2009 season. Right now it looks like each weekend of May will have one big ‘tentpole’ and an additional romantic or family comedy, with the exception of the last weekend with the Pixar film Up, which could count as both a family comedy and a tentpole. The new X-Men and Terminator movies as well as the DaVinci Code sequel (Angels and Demons) should give Trek some good competition. But most successful films actually only get one #1 weekend at the box office. For example, last summer Transformers brought in over $300 domestically, yet was only the top film in its first weekend. If Star Trek is good (and most importantly, if it is well marketed), then it can easily end up a hit, regardless of how well the other May films do.  See below for a list of the May 2009 movies so far.


DATE

FILM

1-May-09

X-Men Origins: Wolverine

 

The Hannah Montana Movie

8-May-09

Star Trek

 

My Life In Ruins

15-May-09

Angels & Demons

 

Bruno

22-May-09

Terminator Salvation

 

Night at the Museum 2:

29-May-09

Up

 

 


Line up for May 2009

Boy Wizard afraid of Kirk and Spock? (and Autobots?)
Trekkies may think we had it bad when Paramount moved the Star Trek movie back 4 1/2 months from Christmas 2008 to May 2009, but Harry Potter fans just got dealt a bigger blow. Last week Warner Bros. moved Harry Potter and the Half Blood Prince from Thanksgiving 2008 to July 17th 2009, a weekend already occupied by Land of the Lost, starring Will Farrell. When picking a summer slot, it appears that Warner wanted to steer clear from May movies led by Trek and the June movies led by Transformers 2.

 

Comments

1. Ed G. - August 20, 2008

yawn….no competition

2. That One Guy - August 20, 2008

How will we compete with Hannah Montana?!?!

Well, we’re doomed.

So far, so good. No one wants to see another X-Men, and Hannah Montana obviously does not stand a chance.

3. jbgestl - August 20, 2008

That’s the kind of competition we want for Trek.

4. MrPointy - August 20, 2008

Man, The Hannah Montana Movie will destroy the shit out of everything on that list.

I’m calling $1billion box office from that thing.

5. CanuckLou - August 20, 2008

Christmas this year is sure looking good right now but no matter Trek will rule! At least for one weekend.

…the adventure continues…

6. Spockanella - August 20, 2008

2: No one wants to see another X-Men? Speak for yourself, youngling! Hugh Jackman….drool…

7. tomcatjosh - August 20, 2008

Montana Will Not Blow Trek Away.Montana Is For Girls.

8. Sean - August 20, 2008

I don’t get it. If Paramount wanted Star Trek to get better box office numbers, why put it in direct competition with Wolverine, Angels & Demons, and Terminator Salvation?

The original release date wouldn’t have had any competition at all. This just infuriates me even more about this STUPID delay.

9. VERG - August 20, 2008

I could give a wet fart about this.

10. Charles Trotter - August 20, 2008

The Hannah Montana Movie is no different than the Lizzie McGuire Movie released back in 2003. It opened on the same weekend as X-Men 2; naturally, X-Men kicked Lizzie’s adolescent butt: X2 got $85.6 million for the weekend, McGuire got $17.3 million. Hannah Montana will probably earn a tad bit more given the bigger fanbase, but not by much. Plus, there’s inflation to consider.

I predict The Hannah Montana Movie will open with about $25 to $30 million, coming in second place behind Wolverine, which should muster a cool $80 million to $100 million, unless it totally sucks. Then again, X-Men 3 totally sucked, and that earned $102 million in its opening weekend. The disappointment of that film will likely reduce ticket sales, though.

As for My Life in Ruins… yeah, no competition. Vardalos’ last movie, Connie and Carla, debuted back in 2004 with only $3.3 million, coming in at #13. My Life in Ruins will be lucky enough to earn $10 million. The real competition against Star Trek is Wolverine; if Trek doesn’t open big enough, Wolverine may manage to get two weekends at the top, leaving Trek in the #2 spot. That wouldn’t be good at all, especially since Wolverine, like all big tentpole movies, will lose at least 50% of its business in the second weekend. That means Wolverine could very well earn about $35 to $50 million in its second weekend, depending on word-of-mouth; Trek has to be able to beat that in its opening weekend.

I’m currently predicting Star Trek to do M:i:III or Batman Begins business, meaning about $45 to $50 million in its opening weekend. Hopefully, that will be enough to topple Wolverine. With good word of mouth, Trek could surpass the $150 million domestically by the time its theatrical run comes to an end. At least, that’s what I’m hoping.

11. Mig - August 20, 2008

Based solely on this, and no movies opening prior to May. I predict that for the weekend Star Trek opens the box office will look something like this:

#1 Wolverine — $40 million
#2 Hannah Montana — $22 million
#3 Star Trek — $18 million

12. Daniel Broadway - August 20, 2008

While I understand Paramount’s decision to do this, it makes me uneasy. At Christmas, it would have had almost no competition for weeks. It was have ruled the box office completely unchallanged.

Now that it will be in May, it may only rule for one weekend, instead of a few weeks in a row. Even if Star Trek is a great film, some people will opt to watch X-Men on the second weekend instead of the first to beat the crowds. Those people who enjoy X-Men more than Star Trek, will see it instead, where as, if Star Trek was the only thing in December, that same X-men demographic would see it, because of their general love of comic books/sci-fi.

I’m not saying that Star Trek is doomed, but it just seems to me that it would have more of a chance in December, when nothing would be stealing it’s thunder for weeks.

13. Sarah Ann - August 20, 2008

Here’s hoping JJ has something really REALLY good cooked up.

14. Spockanella - August 20, 2008

9. I’m always curious why folks who claim not to care about a particular subject still feel compelled to make a comment…seems contradictory. Or maybe just contrary.

Hope you do your own laundry. :)

15. Charles Trotter - August 20, 2008

#11 Mig — Hannah Montana is unlikely to earn that much in its second weekend. The Hannah Montana concert movie that came out earlier this year earned $31 million in its first weekend and lost 67% of its business in the second weekend, coming in with $10.3 million. The Hannah Montana Movie could manage $35 million in its first weekend, but after that, it’ll drop like a rock; I would predict no more than $13 million in its second weekend.

Wolverine probably will earn about $40 million, but I think you’re predicting Trek waaaay too low. The buzz for this movie is just too high for Star Trek to open with a measly $18 million. If it earns less than $30 million, I’ll be surprised. Of course, if in the unlikely event it did only earn $18 million — or anything below $25 million, for that matter — you can kiss future Star Trek projects goodbye for the next, oh… 10 years or so.

16. krikzil - August 20, 2008

Now I’m wishing it had been left at Xmas time. Hanna Montana will be huge. I don’t get it but she’s got a fan base that won’t quit. I think Wolverine will do well too unless it’s an absolute mess. There’s too much going on, it’s not going to allow ONE film to dominate.

17. Spocko - August 20, 2008

How will we bear it! Every Star Trek fan will have to stop and ask themselves “Do I wanna see Star Trek or My Life in Ruins on May 8th?”

…Gee…that’s a tough one.

18. Xai Ping - August 20, 2008

Anthony, may I suggest #9 be removed and sent to bed without his supper.

19. Xai Ping - August 20, 2008

Best get the big, fat Greek bus outta the way…

20. Xai Ping - August 20, 2008

…unless it’s got warp drive, that thing ain’t gonna fly

21. Gibnerd - August 20, 2008

I have a good feeling. People (like me) will go see Wolverine opening weekend and then it will have the typical dropoff. I have a sneaky feeling the trailers for Trek will blow people away and prove that this flick isn’t just another Star Trek movie. Trek will open at #1 and make i feel a little more then 18 million opening weekend. i think closer to 30-40 million. but it all depends….. the buzz (outsdie of us folks checking TrekMovie ever 2 hours) really needs to start now. the preview that was on Cloverfield seems so long ago now.. in short, lets get a new teaser out there. show us the action. show us the trek.

22. Mig - August 20, 2008

Charles, I expect the Hannah Montana movie will receive much more exposure and a higher gross as a result when compared to the concert. Granted that depends to a large degree on marketing. As to the success of Star Trek, well I personally think it’ll be a major major bomb. Just not enough interest from the ordinary person.

23. FREAKAZOID - August 20, 2008

Not care about Wolverine?!?!? It opens the week before Trek and I have every intention of seeing Wolverine as much as Star Trek! Actually, I’m gonna have to wait until the second weekend of Trek because my best friend is getting married that weekend. I wonder if he realized they had picked the weekend Star Trek is opening for the wedding! maybe that can be the bachelor party!!! **heh heh heh**

24. Gibnerd - August 20, 2008

i just don’t think it will be a major bomb. look at Transformers! how many hardcore Transformers nuts are out there? quite a few, but not in the numbers that movie pulled in. the trick is bringing in the non-megafan audience and Trek really has a job to do convincing the summer movie audience that is something new, special and awesome and not typical Trek.

25. Mike - August 20, 2008

I predict a repeat of Star Trek V being toppled by more mainstream blockbusters. For non-trekkers to give Star Trek a chance, there can’t be competition like that. Most non-trekkers will go see the other “cooler” movies instead.

Star Trek would do extremely well in my mind at Christmas.

I hope I’m wrong, but I just can’t see ST competing with those movies.

26. capt mike - August 20, 2008

#22. You are way to cynicle. I believe Trek will make at least 45 to 50 million. The thing is it will be marketeted and there will be at least 2 great trailers. I think J.J Abrams will do a great job in the marketing dept. This is not like the last 2 tng movies.This will have a new feel to it and will be different enough and there will be strong word of mouth. So all the doomsayers please keep to your self.If you think it will be bad then for you it will. I for one think it will be great and with a great group of young actors and nimoy himself plying spock and with so much going on and a great story it will be a hit. Hey it may do better then anyone expects. So lets keep a positive attitude and spread the word on seeing trek and it will be a hit. So with a great group of hot and talented young actors and a proven writer and director in Abrams and true pureist like Cawley and Of corse Nimoy and all the other original actors approving then we are all in for a treat. Don’t let the bombs like the last 2 tng movies keep the bitter taste in your mouth. Ric berman will be no where near this film.

27. Beam Me Up - August 20, 2008

Lol, that will be out of theaters in a week.

28. jimj - August 20, 2008

I still say move it back to Christmas season about a month or two ahead of time, with a LOT of hype…it would get people’s attention that way. I agree that i think it’s gonna suffer because of these other movies, good story or not….because common “Joe movie-goer” has a preconceived notion about Trek.

29. jimj - August 20, 2008

but #26 makes a good point in his comments, too!

30. Ky-Malairn - August 20, 2008

Isn’t Nia Vardolos’ 15 minutes up yet? If not, it’s gotta be like 13 or 14 past the hour. Greek wedding was a success because the story, although based on this wacky Greek family, connected with audiences who saw elements of their own heritage. Hence everyone was in on the joke. Nia’s tv spin off and her subsequent film did not have the same hold.

I predict Trek will win the weekend. There seems to be a buzz building in the fanboy community, not just Trekkies, who are curious about JJ’s interpretation of the classic series and this without a full bore campaign. It’ll do much better than that arbitrary 18 million dollar figure someone here floated.

31. capt mike - August 20, 2008

What you havt to remember is that this movie will not be marketted as just another trek movie.It will be market as a new and fresh trek and at the same time true to trek. it be marketed as new and fresh but at the same time With the new Actors and most will be reconised from other kool movies. Especialy Quinto from Heroes. You know they will all make the rounds on the talk shows. Like letterman and leno and the others. You will see a lot of promotion on The new trek and it will be marketed as a new trek. So again it will be a Hot movie with kool young stars with Nimoy himself being in it and making it kool for everyone. Trekies or non trekies alike will like it.

32. capt mike - August 20, 2008

# 29. Thank you. Im a movie buff of all kinds and I like to think i know what movies will be hot or cold. The way I see it The new trek will be hot.Maybe just my opinion but when you look at the facts of the new trek on what we know and all that we have seen so far it will be a hit. we don’t have people doing this movie who have no clue like berman. we have a proven director and producer like Abrams and his bad robot staff on deck. Also with Paramount in full support if trek. Yes it does suck on trek moving from Christmas to Summer. But to me that tells me Paramoung realy feels this will be a big hit and Well they have been making movies for a long time and that is the buesness they are in and I like to think They know what there doing.

33. Xai Ping - August 20, 2008

A bomb?

I know everyone’s welcome here… but where’d those posts come from?
Once again we have people predicting a bad movie based on nothing.

34. SChaos1701 - August 20, 2008

It’s funny how people say that a movie that they haven’t seen 1 second of will fail.

35. HoochaHoocha - August 20, 2008

Just goes to show, sometimes Paramount is damn shortsighted sometimes. I understand they wanted Star Trek to be a big summer blockbuster, and that it’s a sign of confidence in the film they placed it as such, but come on, did you really think Trekkies and sci-fi fans in general wouldn’t go see it at Christmas? Are busness politics really that superficial? It’s being challanged by genre films for the entire month of May. Stupid bastards–thinking with their wallets instead of their brains…and possibably making less money than they could have in the process!

36. capt mike - August 20, 2008

# 35 In moving the Movie to the summer. It will do Much better buesness.

37. Charles Trotter - August 20, 2008

Well, the grosses for Wolverine, Terminator Salvation, and Angels & Demons will likely be hampered by the disappointment of the previous films. X-Men 3 sucked, Terminator 3 disappointed (and in some cases enraged) even the most hard-core Terminator fans, and The Da Vinci Code was pretty… blah. So, the fact that the previous films were less than stellar should prevent the grosses for these films from being outstanding and thus give trek a bit of an edge (not that it will need it, just saying).

38. Ky-Malairn - August 20, 2008

Charles,

But if the box office for the 3 films you mentioned will be affected by the previous installments, couldn’t the case be made that Nemesis will act as a similar poison?? (just saying)

39. Xai Ping - August 20, 2008

35. HoochaHoocha – August 20, 2008
I don’t work for a movie studio, but see the logic in placing a movie with a great deal of potential in a May tentpole position.
Paramount KNOWS the sci-fi and Trek fans will show up at any time of the year, it’s the general audience they seek and Summer is a great time as well as Christmas. There’s nothing wrong with this May release in this movie-goer’s eyes. Wolverine and T-8 will get their $$, but I think you’ll see this Trek open very well and hold on as a first or second for weeks to follow and then on to a very successful DVD launch.

It’s time for the Trek fans to calm a little and quit reviewing a movie they have not seen yet. Or better yet, as a fan… stand up for what you enjoy and quit blasting it before the launch.

.

40. Xai Ping - August 20, 2008

#38

Nope… different animal and Trek fans (although whiney) will come see and the general public will be hooked from the larger than usual ad plan. It’s time to re-sell the future folks…. wait for it…

41. capt mike - August 20, 2008

#38. It won’t and here is why. New Director and Producer. berman is gone. New direction with the original crew being played by very talented actors and of core haveing Nimoy himself to keep with the real Tradition and great fx as well and Having paramount Realy pushing the new movie. T4 Will be big because it will finaly deal with the post Nuclear Attack and the War against the machines. X Men Well that remains to be seen. Da Vinci Code is a joke but will do some buesness.

42. Ky-Malairn - August 20, 2008

Captain Mike,

I had to play devil’s advocate on that one, even though I do agree that there will be a new car smell to Trek this time out.

Although, here we go again, the same case could be made for 2 of those 3 movies. T4 is a brand new writing team and director. Christian Bale is hot right now and you’re right, the war against the machines is what people have been salivating to see. X Men is in a similar position. Wolverine is the most popular character and no one associated with the trilogy (I’m talking writers and directors) is involved. Angels is the only one of the bunch with carry over from the previous film.

43. The Realist - August 20, 2008

So in other words Trek has no competition?

44. Charles Trotter - August 20, 2008

#38 Ky-Malairn — good point. That being the case, all these movies are screwed. :-P

Nah, I joke, I’m sure they’ll all do good business. Trek and Terminator will probably benefit from the fact that their previous movies were 6-7 years ago. Only three years have passed for Da Vinci and X-Men, though.

I definitely think Angels & Demons will get the short end of the box office stick between these four movies. Star Trek will probably come next, followed by Terminator Salvation. Wolverine will likely be the big hit of the month.

45. I'm Captain Kirk... I'M CAPTAIN KIRK! - August 20, 2008

LOL… This is perfect… No competition for Trek!

46. Ky-Malairn - August 20, 2008

Charles,

Yeah, I gotta agree with you. These are all big franchises and will make their money back easily. Even the worst of them are pretty much guaranteed a big opening weekend.

I don’t think the execs at Paramount are rubbing rabbit’s feet much on this one. They have projections. They know what they can count on from the fanbase, the ordinary movie going public and the foreign markets. They also know what to expect with the DVD release. They wouldn’t blindly gamble 200+ million on a film without some assurances on how they were going to get it back.

Geez, if Superman Returns can scratch out a profit then there’s hope for our team.

47. Charles Trotter - August 20, 2008

22. Mig – August 20, 2008

You’re right, the Hannah Montana Movie will get more exposure than the concert movie. The concert flick only opened in 683 theaters; The Hannah Montana Movie will likely open in more than 3,000+ theaters. That said, it’s a safe bet that everyone who all the die-hard Montana fans went to see the concert film in the first two weekends. Despite the increase in the number of theaters, the fan base will still be about the same size. So, I’m predicting the 2009 movie won’t open with much more than $35 million; I’m thinking $38 million, tops. In its second weekend, it will likely drop a heavy 65% … so, it should only get about $13 million in its second weekend (Star Trek’s weekend). Wolverine will probably get around $35 to $40 million that weekend, while Trek hopefully debuts with about $45 million.

48. Charles Trotter - August 20, 2008

46 Ky-Malairn — $200+ million? Whoo, that’s way above the current budget estimates ($135-150 million). Of course, when you include distribution and marketing, it probably will come to over $200 million. I agree, though, I’m pretty sure the folks at Paramount know what they’re doing… at least, I hope. :)

I still think it would have made more money as a Christmas release, though. There was far less competition, so general audiences wouldn’t have had to choose between Trek and X-Men and Terminator. For the record, movie tickets here are $10 now, so it’s a good bet that people here and in similar areas will only be going to see one movie that month (if any). To tell you the truth, I really don’t think the movie they choose will be Star Trek — but it all depends on the marketing, I suppose. We’ll see how things turn out. :)

49. John from Cincinnati - August 20, 2008

Star Trek is going to be the movie of the year in 2009. Everyone is going to be talking about it and seeing it. Quote me.

50. Cyberghost - August 20, 2008

My life in ruins, stupid movie ahhhhhhhhh I think I will to to bed.

51. MDSHiPMN - August 20, 2008

Will Star Trek get lost in Wolverine\Bale On Film hype?

I think Trek can (and will) do very well, but to open the weekend after Wolverine gives some cause for concern.

However based on everything I’ve seen Star Trek looks like it will be a very cool movie.

And Trek fans will show up, if for no other reason than to say “I told ya so!”.

I keep thinking back to the teaser footage of Trek, and the details we’ve heard about the cast, villians, uniforms, and the fact a very successful production team is hell bent on making Trek a success.

I can’t see this movie being anything but fun!

A modest showing at the box office? Maybe.

I would just like to see a spike in interest in Trek again. If people skip the theater, but hear the movie is sweet and rent or buy the DVD, at least Trek would be getting good reviews, and making money.

I love the idea of Star Trek being a mega-hit, but it seems like mainstream might resist.

Bad memories from TNG-era films?

If this movie can erase the damage done by TNG ——– chalk it up in the win column.

52. MDSHiPMN - August 20, 2008

Unless It’s an embarrassment unlke any other.

53. Bill Peters - August 20, 2008

I don’t see any real challenge for Star Trek in slot it is worked into…
X-Men Origins: Wolverine and The Hannah Montana Movie will have passed and be on there second week and My life in Ruins won’t be fighting for the same people Trek will attract. Now if it were going up aganst Terminator Salvation or Angels & Demons on opening weekend it might give trek a run for it money, trek may not do as well when these movies happen but I figure by the time they come out everyone who wanted to see trek will have seen it a few times…but here is to hoping to breaking some records for Trek opening weekend….

54. British Naval Dude - August 20, 2008

I plan ta’ hop from cinema ta’ cinema watchin’ all these films at tha’ same time…

See? I support tha’ arrrrrrrrrrrrrrts.

55. Bill Peters - August 20, 2008

Hopeing it breaks some box office records for a Trek Movie!!!

56. Cody - August 20, 2008

Why not move Trek two weeks prior to Wolverine and give it a chance to make some cash first…. Unless something cooler is scheduled for then, like Harry Pooper meets the Jonas Brothers… or something

57. Wes - August 21, 2008

.” If Star Trek is good (and most importantly, if it is well marketed),”

Nemesis was highly marketed and hyped, much of the money associated with Nemesis was spent on marketing/ advertising and regardless of all of the minor mistakes that the fans notice, Nemesis was a pretty cool movie and they did a good job bringing back TNG after 4 or 5 years. It only failed because Star Trek in the world now = nerd wheras in the 90′s it was the popular thing, because when something is popular people will follow it and when it is not, they will drop it.

“I don’t see any real challenge for Star Trek in slot it is worked into…
X-Men Origins: Wolverine and The Hannah Montana Movie will have passed and be on there second week ”

Die Another Day was out for over a month and it slaughtered Nemesis at the last, Lord of The Rings was out for 2 weeks and it slaughtered Nemesis, and Harry Potter was out for a few weeks and it slaughtered Nemesis. Sorry, but, those movies will be big Jackman is an excellent actor and Wolverine has been anticipated since 2002 and Hannah Montana, if anyone says that it will not make very much or only for a week they are dreadfully underestimating the power of the Hannah Montana brand and Disney and though these are different genres parents only have enough money to take their kid to one movie at a time.

“That’s the kind of competition we want for Trek.”
No it is’nt remember back in 2002 people were saying the same thing before Nemesis came out, about all the movies at that time, and Maid in Manhattan a forgotten JLO movie beat out Nemesis the first week and Nemesis never came to # 1 because Harry Potter, Lord of the rings and Bond were sucking away at possible profits from Nemesis.

Star Trek since around 1998 has been dead in the mainstream, it had it’s run from around 1986-1998 in both T.V. and Film the problem is that Star Trek now has a Scarlett Letter and people will avoid it like a person who hasnt taken a shower for months. Because now it is associated with nerds once again. The superhero movies have done a great job making themselves cool, but, I doubt Trek can do the same, especially since there are no big name actors in the movie like Brad Pitt as Kirk or Halle Berry as Uhura. Big names get big media attention which this film could use and it appeals accross the spectrum, with fans of those actors wanting to see them along with fans of the project and it makes people think it is cool.
Star Trek, no matter how genious it will be will be in third with probably around 20 million Hannah Montana will be #1 at 60 million and Wolverine at 40. Star Trek will remain steady and after all the stupid fans rip it apart because Kirk’s sideburn isnt right they will go and see it once instead of multiple times with the first 9 trek movies (Nemesis failed because the fans did not see it 2-5 times). And the movie will fade off with 60 -80 million domestic and around the same overseas and it will barely pay for the costs of the movie and the merchandise will sit on the store shelves and the companies will get screwed again than Star Trek will be gone for 10-15 years. J.J., you should have stuck with the Christmas release date there was no competition and the movie could have resonated and had time for word of mouth to spread about how great it is and more would have gone to see it, rather than get caught up in these other films.

58. Charles Trotter - August 21, 2008

#57 Wes — you’re forgetting we’ve already seen how a Hannah Montana film performs, and the core fan base saw that film in theaters. It made $31 million in its first weekend, then dropped 67% to $10 million in its second weekend. The hard core fans saw the movie opening weekend; the not-so-hard core fans saw it the second weekend. The movie dropped an additional 68% in its third weekend. With inflation and an increase in theaters, I expect The Hannah Montana Movie to open with about $38 million and then drop to about $13 million in its second weekend, then down to about $5 million in its third weekend.

By the way, I have no idea where you heard about Nemesis being highly marketed, but that made me chuckle. Advertisements on a coupon of a second-rate taco restaurant hardly qualifies as heavy marketing to me. ;)

59. Wes - August 21, 2008

“If this movie can erase the damage done by TNG ”
Why is everyone anti-TNG since Nemesis? there was no ‘damage done’ when Generations came out, and Kirk and Picard were on Time magazine, or when First Contact was a big hit or when Insurrection made $. The only damage done was through an oversaturation of Trek Voyager and Enterprise should have been skipped and TNG movies should have been coming out at regular intervals.

60. Wes - August 21, 2008

” 58. Charles Trotter – August 21, 2008

#57 Wes — you’re forgetting we’ve already seen how a Hannah Montana film performs, and the core fan base saw that film in theaters. It made $31 million in its first weekend, then dropped 67% to $10 million in its second weekend. The hard core fans saw the movie opening weekend; the not-so-hard core fans saw it the second weekend. The movie dropped an additional 68% in its third weekend. With inflation and an increase in theaters, I expect The Hannah Montana Movie to open with about $38 million and then drop to about $13 million in its second weekend, then down to about $5 million in its third weekend.

By the way, I have no idea where you heard about Nemesis being highly marketed, but that made me chuckle. Advertisements on a coupon of a second-rate taco restaurant hardly qualifies as heavy marketing to me. ;)”

You are forgetting something, the first Montana/Cyrus movie was only in limited release because of the 3D thing this one will be wide spread and in thousands of theaters. Also, you didnt mention XMEN.

As for marketing for Nemesis maybe Anthony can clear this up, but, Nemesis had more money for advertising than any other movie since TMP and though Del Taco had their promo. Nemesis ads were run heavily here in S. CA on T.V. in primetime spots, a website was dedicated to Nemesis, and full color ads were run in various magazines and newspapers in it’s orig. release, and I was in High School at the time and a full color ad was run in one of the magazines circulated to students at High Schools. Unlike Insurrection which hardly had anything. Chuckle all you want but, facts are facts,

61. MDSHiPMN - August 21, 2008

I can think of countless reasons most of the TNG movies stunk.
Kirk died, for starters…

62. Charles Trotter - August 21, 2008

#60 Wes — actually, I didn’t forget that. See comment #47 above. :)

As for Nemesis’ advertising, I remember hearing they spent more money on advertising than any previous Trek film. The problem is, they didn’t spend their money wisely. In VA, ad spots were limited and only grew more intense a day or two before the movie opened. Also, our high schools didn’t have such circulations.

It appears that Paramount decided to promote the film more heavily in “bigger” cities and states. Even then, all they had were advertisements and coupons through Del Taco. True, that’s more than Insurrection had, but it just wasn’t enough. I’m not putting the blame of the film’s failure solely on lack of advertising or poor advertising, but it certainly didn’t help. :)

63. Wes - August 21, 2008

Well, if they would have waited on Nemesis to release it in Feb. 2003 when there was nothing coming out it would have done better.

64. Charles Trotter - August 21, 2008

#60 Wes (continued)

For the record, I’m not saying you’re going to be wrong. For all I know, Hannah Montana could make $50+ million in its first weekend. Although that wouldn’t surprise me, I still don’t think it will make much more than $35 to $40 million in its opening weekend.

Regardless, the bigger the number on opening weekend, the harder it will fall in its second weekend. That’s typically how these big fan movies play out. A good example is the Sex and the City movie; although obviously geared towards different audiences (one towards retarded adults, the other towards retarded pre-teen girls), both have a hefty fan base. Sex and the City opened with $57 million because all the fans of the TV show went to see it on opening weekend. As a result, the movie plummeted to $21 million in its second weekend — losing nearly 63% of its business.

Another more appropriate example is The Lizzie McGuire Movie. This movie was also based on a popular kids TV show (although it doesn’t have nearly the fan base Hannah Montana does) and it also opened on the same weekend as an X-Men film. It opened with $17 million (again, I know Hannah Montana will earn a LOT more) and then fell 58% to $7 million in its second weekend.

Basically, no matter how much Hannah Montana earns in its first weekend, its sales are going to plummet in the second weekend. The more it earns in its opening weekend, the more it’ll drop in its second weekend, because everyone who wanted to see it will have done so. As such, Star Trek should very easily be able to beat Montana at the box office.

Now Wolverine, on the other hand… that’s another story. As I said above, it could open from anywhere between $80 and $100 million. Like all big summer tentpole releases, it will drop about 55-60% in its second weekend, so it will earn about $35-45 million in its second weekend. My concern is that Trek will not be able to beat Wolverine for that weekend. It really needs to open at #1 to show that Trek is once again a major contender at the box office.

65. Wes - August 21, 2008

Wikipedia’s summarizes My Life In Ruin’s plot thusly:

Georgia (Nia Vardalos) is a Greek-American tour guide, who leads an assorted group of misfit tourists (Takei, Burton, Koenig, Frakes, Nichols, Sirtis) around Greece. Tourists who would rather buy a T-Shirt than learn about history. In an hysterical clash of personalities and cultures, everything seems to go wrong. Until one day when a very special tourist, Irv Gordon (William Shatner), shows her how to have fun (uh oh!) and take a good look at the last person she’d ever expect to find love with….Her quiet and sexy Greek bus driver (Patrick Stewart)

66. Wes - August 21, 2008

“(one towards retarded adults, the other towards retarded pre-teen girls)”
Some might consider us Retarded! Retarded Trekkies- clinging to the hope of a big hit!

“Star Trek should very easily be able to beat Montana at the box office.”
Well if Montana drops to 8 mil. it wont be hard to beat that, the problem here, is that this Trek movie is so expenssive that it will have to make alot, Nemesis came in even when combining world and domestic box offices it will have to have a 30-50 mil opening and 10-15 mil a week after that to begin to pay the cost, now, dont get me wrong, I want the movie to be a big success, but, they have made some dumb mistakes like moving the film from the orig. release to May. Especially after the Trailer said Christmas. When it is printed you are committed and they should have stayed that way, big mistake.

Here is the movie I want to see:

Wikipedia’s summarizes My Life In Ruin’s plot thusly:

Georgia (Nia Vardalos) is a Greek-American tour guide, who leads an assorted group of misfit tourists (Takei, Burton, Koenig, Frakes, Nichols, Sirtis) around Greece. Tourists who would rather buy a T-Shirt than learn about history. In an hysterical clash of personalities and cultures, everything seems to go wrong. Until one day when a very special tourist, Irv Gordon (William Shatner), shows her how to have fun (uh oh!) and take a good look at the last person she’d ever expect to find love with….Her quiet and sexy Greek bus driver (Patrick Stewart)

67. Will H - August 21, 2008

Though there’s not much to compete with it, yet, there probably will be. Still, there will be enough big summer movies where a lot of people with a smaller movie budget might decide to go see transformers 2 or X Men and skip star trek, because lets face it, that kinda stuff is more appealing to the general public. And some of those people also might hold out for Harry Potter (which pisses me off that they pushed it back because the main kid is naked in something else, now there’s nothing much good left for 08). A winter release would have made the movie stand out more to the general public. It could have been “winter 08, the new Star Trek and…not much else” And though its true that people go to the movies a lot during the summer, the winter’s a time when people are usually reduced to indoor things such as movies and still go, and if there’s only crap to see, throw in a good movie (still assuming this movie is good and not crap), and people…logically, will flock to it.

68. Paulaner - August 21, 2008

I don’t see much of a competition issue. I mean, come on, people can see more than a single movie in a season. I go to the cinema quite often. The more good movies to see, the better ;-)

69. Christopher Seeley - August 21, 2008

Well at least Trek will not be going up against LOTR: The Two Towers or anything of that caliber.. That was a huge blunder on Paramount’s part. This new Trek will do fine because not only because of JJ Abrams’s reputation but because people want another Trek movie, a new and fresh look. TOS and TNG are my two favorite series and they will continue to be that till the day I die. I look forward to this new movie. The reinvisioned Battlestar Galactica has done very well despite all the uproar in the beginning. Fans including myself who said it wouldn’t work. Man was I wrong, I watched it and liked it. If Trek is going to continue on it will have to go that same route.

70. Christopher Seeley - August 21, 2008

I tell you what though, seeing “The Menagerie” on the big screen was awesome! I hope they do something like that again!

71. Cervantes - August 21, 2008

With Harry Potter out of the schedule this Christmas, the Trek Movie might have been the only big event Movie for a cinema-going public of all ages for some time….

Now it’s just another contender in a mixed schedule. While I’m sure it will prove to do well, I just don’t think it will make as much as it would have in it’s original Christmas slot. Nor will it be received as so impressive, now that it’s among some other big-budget fare in the Summer schedule….

I can’t see it breaking any records, but it should still do well enough to matter

72. LoyalStarTrekFan - August 21, 2008

Reading these posts is like watching one of the 24-hour cable news channels and all the so-called “experts” predicting this and that about everything from the economy to politics to the hot topic of the week. They all argue and yell over each other and everything said is forgotten by the next day. We can’t predict how well any movie is going to do until it comes out. Some meet expectations, some do better, and some do far worse. All we can do is hope and convince everyone we know to go see Trek. All Paramount can do is advertise and promote and hope people will go see it. Therefore, I hope that Trek will smash the competition and the box office and bring Trek back. We will all see if hope becomes reality in 2009.

73. Charles Trotter - August 21, 2008

#72 LoyalStarTrekFan — You’re right, there is no way to tell how well the movie will do until it opens. But there are people who’s job it is to predict the opening, total domestic, and worldwide gross of movies. Sometimes, they come pretty close.

There is a game on Box Office Mojo called the Derby where people predict the box office performance for the upcoming weekend. I used to play it and did pretty well, but got out of it as my estimates got more and more inaccurate. I do still play it occasionally, though, and sometimes I still do pretty decent.

But I digress. Your point is taken. I just find it fun trying to predict how movies will do at the box office. Call me crazy. :-P

74. capt mike - August 21, 2008

#57. Wes you are completly wrong oj how trek will perform. Hannah montanna will not beat out trek. It has it’s Audance but in no way can it retain the top spot. Trek is not Nemises with the likes of Berman who had no clue.Trek will probly do about 40 to 50 Million and hannah will do about 15 to 20 after a opening of 35 to 40 million. You havt to remember trek will be fresh and not old and tireing like nemises was. I did enjoy nemises to a point. The battle action was great but the story was tired and been there and done that so many times before. Remember that clones was a major theme that year with the clone wars and the stories of trek on clones from the tos series to tng and even DS9. Also Trek does have some well Known actors. Wyona Rider is in the movie as well as Quinto from the top rated show Heroes and Pine is getting well known for his work and some of the others have had some succesful movies as well.OF corse there are plenty of rumers of some Big time cameoes as well and that will Also get Peoples attention.People also knowThat J.J Abrams is a true and proven Director and writer and he is A fast and up and coming Man who knows how to make Movies and Shows with a big time Crew who are tops in there fields and not some one like berman who just did not get it. The buzz from hollywood is great as people Like Tom hanks and Even Pitt have Visited the set and From What I can Tell Several other A listers from holloywood have Visited the set.So to Say that Trek Will Not do well you need to take a step Back and look At what has happened during the movie shooting from all the reports and As of yet the real marketing have not even begun except for one teaser trailer thus far and that did create a lot of buzz in the movie and pop industry.trek very well will score at least 40 to 50 million and I would not be surprised if it does even better then that.

75. Phil - August 21, 2008

Just don’t forget that Nemesis got killed by ‘Drumline’ and ‘Maid in Manhattan.’

76. captain_neill - August 21, 2008

16. krikzil

Hi there I know this is off topic but I am really sorry I did not meet you at the Star Trek con.

Did you enjoy the con this year. I thought it was fantastic. After seeing Leonard on stage with Zachary I am more fired up about the movie now. Zachary was really nice to talk to

I am not sure I will be there next year but I will def be there in 2010 for the Vegas con.

I was the one Malcolm McDowell told me I was at the wrong con when I asked him about working with Kubrick on Clockwork Orange.

I predict the Star Trek movie will tramp Hannah Montana. My concern is that this movie will need a bigger opening weekend than any of the previous 10 movies due to its budget.

77. Clinton - August 21, 2008

Disney will press hard, on TV, cable and in other movies, to make the Hannah Montana movie a hit. The real question will be whether or not Hannah’s 15 minutes of fame will survive until next Summer. I’m not saying that to be cruel or pump up Trek, I just think the life-cycle of a pop star has always been pretty short.

78. Batina - August 21, 2008

So… Trek vs. Trash ? :D

79. Timncc1701 - August 21, 2008

My big fat greek anything is a completely different demographic than Star Trek. Yawn. It would seem that JJ was picked to do Trek because of his ability to appeal to the masses and not just Trek geeks. I am not worried about the financial success of the film.

80. star trackie - August 21, 2008

The real question is whether or not Hannah-mania can sustain itself for another year. Miley Cyrus is already balking about continuing with the show and wanting to break away from the character. It’s a very real possibility that these Hannah crazed tweens may have moved on to something else in a years time. If that happens, then her movie won’t pose a threat.

But Wolverine and Terminator with Christian Bale? That 1-2 punch on both sides of Trek’s release date could cause Trek some serious misery.

81. Decker's Stubble - August 21, 2008

Night at the Museum 2?

My Big Fat Greek Weeding 2 aka My Life in Ruins?

X-Men 2, er 3, er whatever…..

Terminator 5, er 6, er whatever….

The only real competition I see is Hannah Montana, which judging by the way Miley Cyrus is going, could be a NC-17 movie by then.

82. SD - August 21, 2008

Nemesis got “killed” because it’s a very bad movie. IMVHO.

Right now, X-Files and Dark Knight compete here and X-Files loses because it’s a bad movie. YMMV and all. (It only made me rewatch the series on DVD.)

I’ll go and see EVERY Star trek movie once, but when it’s a bad movie, that’s what I’m going to tell my friends and that effect is what really reduces the number of people going to pay for it in the cinema – if it’s a good movie, the mouth-to-mouth propaganda will push it.

IMVHO and I have no clue about all this marketing planning stuff. I’m only a cinema goer in Europe (female to boot). So, just count me out ;)

83. Brett Campbell - August 21, 2008

Perhaps Paramount in its infinite wisdom will push the release back to Christmas ’09. ;)

84. star trackie - August 21, 2008

“Nemesis got “killed” because it’s a very bad movie. IMVHO.”

Sorry, I have to disagree on that one. It didn’t have time to die on the vine. Nemesis didn’t suffer a huge drop of ticket sales on it’s 2nd week, it was dead right out of the gate. No one went to see it. For whatever reason TNG had wore out it’s welcome.
Let’s hope JJ’s fresh new take on TOS can spark enough interest in Trek again to give the movie, at least in it’s opening, a good solid weekend at number 1.

85. Irishtrekkie - August 21, 2008

Someone once said “Don’t try to be a great movie. Just be a star trek movie, and let history make its own judgment.”

86. CJS - August 21, 2008

Hannah Montana – peaked last year. Now if it was a Jonas Brothers movie I’d be worried.
X-men, Wolverine – Competitive certainly, but given the quality of the last X-men film, and the lack of other popular X-men characters, I’m doubting it will do all that well.
Angels and Demons – Does anybody know what the hell this movie is about? Will anyone care?
Terminator – No Arnold = bad. Can Christian Bale do for this franchise what he did for Batman? Maybe.
Star Trek – Franchise reboot similar to Batman Begins with a fresh group of actors re-imagining the origins of the original crew. Like Batman Begins it is going to be huge.

87. SpikedCanon - August 21, 2008

#85 they were wrong

88. Jay - "The Real Jim Kirk" - August 21, 2008

Am I the only one who’s very worried about this news??

I work in a cinema, and I know from experience what people watch, what people like and don’t like, and what is popular and what will flop. Ultimately, I get to interact with the public and get their spin on what they want in a film.

Do not underestimate the power of little girls. This Hannah Montana movie will be our biggest competition, im not saying that us trek fans will all flock to see it lol, all im saying is that box office wise, Hannah Montana will do very well indeed, especially here in the UK. We have recently had a new teen flick called Angus, Thongs and Perfect Snogging come out (rated 12A) and every week it sold out. Kids love teen flicks, and its “cool” to watch it, and you get the chance to talk about it with your mates and are therefore “cool” in school. Kids will watch Hannah Montana, not just because its popular, but because kids will feel a need to fit in in school. I anticipate this film bringing in the bums on seats and the money.

Wolverine will do the opposite and bring in the little boys. Wolverine is many peoples favourite X-Men and seeing a film that shows his background story is likely to generate alot of interest. Its also logical to assume that considering the popularity of comic book hero films this film will be a heavyweight in the box office, that is of course assuming that its good.

My Life In Ruins, mm not sure about this one, it could be a flop and not generate much interest, if i recall “my big fat Greek wedding” was so-so and did so-so in the box office… on the other hand, it could do a Mama Mia and be a hit with the women and the oldies – don’t think this one will beat trek though.

Angels and Demons, again this one is a iffy one, The Da Vinci code was met with harsh criticism (the film and book) and we’ve seen with “The Incredible Hulk” that previous poor films can damage the hopes of a sequel (The Incredible Hulk was a complete flop in the UK – This is what im basing my opinion on) However this film does have Tom Hanks, a renowned great actor and a joy to watch, and if this film is a good film and Hanks really pull off a great performance, word of mouth could make or break this film. How Ironic would it be that Hanks (a trekkie) kills of Trek?? lets hope im wrong. Lets also hope that Hanks is one of those big star cameos, April anyone??

Bruno could be the real shocker for me, its a Sacha Baron Cohen film, and we saw how well Borat did, could this one do as well has Borat, doubtful but i guarantee it will be very popular.

Terminator and Night at the Museum may be released too late to make any real impact on Trek, but you can bet your bottom dollar they’ll both be very popular, OK Night at the Museum wasn’t the best film, but it was popular and another Trekkie is at the helm, could it do well in the box office?? who knows, depends on how good it is. Terminator is always going to be popular T3 wasn’t the best, but was still popular and action packed, my only reservation with this film, is the lack of Arnie, i think this will make a huge difference to the success of this film and I don’t think it will be a top performer.

As with every film, word of mouth is vital, Mama Mia is still selling out in my cinema now, because of word of mouth and many people going back to see it 4/5/6 times. The Love Guru and Don’t Mess With the Zohan, have been destroyed by bad word of mouth and we stopped showing The Love Guru after only a week!! NO ONE went to see it!! I think Star Trek’s chances of doing well in May 09 are fair, but i think it would have done better if it was released in December 08. Trek doesn’t have the luxury of word of mouth to some extent because you can guarantee that every Trekkie/Trekker will go watch it on the very first night/s. I’m unsure whether non-trek fans will be interested, this all of course depends on how well the film is marketed. Also we must all take into account that we are only the minority of trek fans, how many trek fans are going to be put off by this revamp?? how many are going to be like our chum on the previous post who plans to boycott it and instead watch old TOS vhs’s with his buddy’s??

One thing is for sure, we need this movie to be marketed very well, and im confident that JJ and co can do this, we all, also need to play our part and spread the word to our non-Trekkie friends and get them in on it, maybe we can convert some Wars/Babylon 5/BSG/ Stargate and sci-fi in general fans to see this flick… who knows?? my fingers and toes are defiantly crossed!!!

Jay, UK

89. Daoud - August 21, 2008

This is all a repeat of 1979. The anticipation for any TOS Trek done professionally is out there. The new film will tap into it. Period.

Even a rushed, not-well-assembled meandering TMP did very well at the box in 1979. And everything indicates that what the Trek Supreme Court has assembled for us isn’t rushed, is well assembled, and has a clear sense of story and purpose.

This is what we should have had 30 years ago. It’ll do fine. It will draw in all sorts of people, just based on the excellent casting choices made. The teens that have bought everything Hannah the past few years, are ready to move onto “screen idol boyfriends”. They’re moving into that “Tiger Beat” stage. And here’s a movie with Chris Pine, Zach Quinto, Urban, smoldering in the roles of the big 3. Market to them!

Pegg’s Shaunophiles will show up.

Cho’s H&K folks will show up.

This movie will surprise at the box and probably end up the largest all-time Trek movie success. It is going to have that original Superman vibe. You know, the movie that was a good movie to go on with a date, with the family, or on a Saturday afternoon. A movie that you leave the theater only after all the credits run… that you tell other people about. That makes you ‘pining’ for a sequel.

Anyone thinking this new Trek will bomb against all this other ‘competition’ is deluding oneself.

And it’s good they moved it off Christmas, because that’s only a few week run. This potato is going to be hot all the way into August.

90. bdrcarter - August 21, 2008

Just for fun…I did some math. ST:TMP did $82,258,456 in domestic box office. That’s when movie tickets were about $3. That’s 27,419,485 tickets sold. At $8 a ticket today (or there abouts), that’s $219,355,882 in 2008 box office receipts. That total included lots of fans that saw the more several times PLUS at least some “general” audience that came with fans or were just curious. Is there anyone here that thinks there are fewer Star Trek fans today than there were in 1979? After 9 more movies and 4 TV series?

The highest number of theaters showing the movie at any one time was 1,002. It’ll probably open in at least 3,000 in 2009. Openign weekend alone should be at least $60mm…hopefully closer to $100mm.)

ST:TMP received mixed reviews at best and not-so-great word of mouth. If JJ Abrams has made a great movie…that happens to be about Star Trek…positive reviews and strong word of mouth can drive box office into the stratosphere. (Who the heck heard of Iron Man before May 2, 2008?)

As for competition, Wolverine MAY crack the $200mm mark if it’s a great flick. $150mm-$175mm is more likely. (And as someone pointed out earlier…the second weekend will drop off by at least 50% leaving Star Trek as the weekend champ by far.) The Da Vinci Code wasn’t a huge success in the US…the foreign markets drove it’s world wide blockbuster status. Angels and Demons in based on an earlier Dan Brown novel that almost no one has heard of. An Arnold-Less Terminator movie? It’s already got bad buzz. Not a threat.

I think the only serious competition is Night at the Museum 2. It has the pedigree and family drawing power to pretty much own Memorial Day. It’ll have staying power and easily roll to $300mm.

The key for Star Trek will be to bring in non-trekkers. A lot rests on the shoulders of the marketing team. Can they promote it by leveraging the best of Trek and jettisoning the “cheese” baggage?

Great movie…strong/smart marketing (no Hulk night on American Gladiators please) = $250mm+. If Paramount can follow their own Iron Man formula…hopefully Trek will crack $300mm.

91. Dennis Bailey - August 21, 2008

As long as it’s not “Big Fat Geek competition” we should be okay.

92. Anthony Pascale - August 21, 2008

RE: Nemesis Marketing
Nemesis was very poorly marketed in terms of both quality and quantity. I have spoken to people at Paramount who agree that they took the Trekkie audience for granted and didnt position the film well for the mainstream. The retail marketing was especially poor (Del Taco coupons…please). The last Trek film to get good marketing was First Contact. In fact by the time this new movie comes out, as far as the mainstream world will think, it is the first Trek film in over a decade. Hell most people dont even know about Enterprise.

I am very interested to see how they market this new film. They have to hit a number of demographics to make it work. We are just part of their plan.

93. TL - August 21, 2008

I wouldn’t discount My life in Ruins. Remeber a film called My Big Fat Greek Wedding it cost only 5 Million and made 240 Million plus-gross.
JJ and company would be lucky to get that kind of return on Star Trek.

94. Trekkie16 - August 21, 2008

I predict an opening weekend of $60 mil. There hasn’t been any decent ST in 10 years and there is a whole new audience of Sci-Fi lovers. I see some of the factors being:

1 – JJ has a huge following because of LOST, MI etc. Some fans follow Directors/Producers like a Spielberg or Hitchcock. Plus JJ “gets it”. JJ and his team are out there giving interviews and getting the fans pumped up.

2. Sci-Fi is BACK – BSG, Sarah Conner Chronicles, Stargate. BSG brought in a whole new audience of sci- fans.

3. Being a nerd is cool. in the last 10 years you have seen the rise of Google, Amazon, Yahoo, Facebook etc. You have an entire generation of 20 something engineers that are techie geeks. This is a whole new audience that will be exposed to ST for the first time.

4. I have faith in JJ and I believe it will be a great movie. Once the reviews hit and the bloggers who saw an early showing start talking about it…everyone will want to see it.

5. The faithful fans. I see entire groups getting together and attending the movie like Sex and the City.

95. steve - August 21, 2008

“In an hysterical clash of personalities and cultures, everything seems to go wrong. Until one day when a very special tourist, Irv Gordon (Richard Dreyfuss), shows her how to have fun and take a good look at the last person she’d ever expect to find love with….Her quiet and sexy Greek bus driver…”

Okay, they need to set this on Mars then it might work.

96. THX-1138 The Fandom Menace - August 21, 2008

Really, at this point it is impossible to come to any reasonable conclusion on what the opening weekends take is going to be. The real deciding factor for me on what kind of buzz a film is getting is that last push before it opens. That’s when you can feel just what kind of movie you may be in for. As much as I whine that we aren’t getting enough stuff to drool over right now, I realize that you have to save your bullets for the sprint to opening weekend. A lot of bad films have had great starts because the last trailers shown before it was released were well done and gave the audience a sense of anticipation. Star Wars did it with Ep IV by giving us the briefest of glimpses at things we had never seen before. Just enough to make you salivate and say “What the hell was that? I gotta see more!” And then it delivered the goods and had people coming back to experience it all over again. Jurassic Park did the same thing. Sequels can be a different ball of wax. The Dark Knight offered us something different than Batman Begins. On the other hand, I worry a bit about a movie like Watchmen. It’s trailer seemed to show us too much. I think the film has promise, but all the stuff that made me curious was seen. But who knows. It was a cool trailer. Cloverfield was another example of building anticipation, but it almost backfired by dragging out the process for too long. I would wager that over half the people that went that first weekend were there to see the damn creature. But the final product didn’t get people to come back, as their appetite to see what the fuss was about was sated.

I am not worried about movies like Hannah Montana. Their fanbase is dependent on someone taking them to it, and they might have used that token on the concert movie already. My Life in Ruins doesn’t pose much of a threat in my estimation. It doesn’t appear to be any more buzz-worthy than Sex in the City and that movie under performed. Nia Vardalos caught lightening in a bottle with Greek Wedding, but I doubt that she can do it twice. The series based on Greek Wedding tanked horribly, so their “core audience” doesn’t seem to be as faithful as Trek’s. And there isn’t anything about the Wolverine movie that I have heard is knock your socks off. I think it should feel Trek’s threat. Trek is coming in with something new. If the execution is there, and the sense that we will be seeing something new and fresh, then it should have a killer weekend. I don’t think they should spill the beans on too much plot or too many visuals, but they shouldn’t be too secretive, either, as too much anticipation has a tendency to leave you with a feeling of disappointment at what you finally get. The balance between not giving away too much but portraying an air of nonchalance about the secrecy of production is delicate indeed. Sort of like like the little craftsman who toils privately in his shop on things that are magnificent and doesn’t realize that what he is creating is just what the world needs.

97. British Naval Dude - August 21, 2008

Ye’ know, I’m sure Nia be bonny and her film be nice and all that, but it be one o’ those movies I could just look at tha’ poster and write me own script fur it which would likely be dead-on what tha’ film be… Not that that’s bad, ye’ see…

That poster wit’ tha’ tri-razor? Is that a new product from Gillette?
“…and the third extra-large blade is designed specifically to open your flesh.”

Good thing Disney didn’t choose the state of “Idaho” fur part o’ that young lady’s name…

Hey- what’s wit’ projecting tha’ take? Izzit some sort of underground gambling club? “Terminator better rake in 75 million or I’m gunna take this here Tri-Razor from Gillette and cut out yer patella, mate.”

Arrrrrr…

98. Izbot - August 21, 2008

57. Wes –
“but, I doubt Trek can do the same, especially since there are no big name actors in the movie like Brad Pitt as Kirk or Halle Berry as Uhura. Big names get big media attention”

Maybe in some instances but not neccessarily in genre films. Lord of the Rings? No Brad Pitts or Halle Barrys there. Same with the Star Wars prequels. We now remember Orlando Bloom from LotR and Hugh Jackman from X-Men as huge stars but not when those first films came out. More like as a result of those films. We may yet see Chris Pine and Zach Quinto as the next big bankable box office darlings as a result of the new Trek film.

99. Vulcan Soul - August 21, 2008

The more I hear about this movie, the more i feel reminded of the “Nemesis” disaster. First the super-cheesy “bad villain” and focus on action and “new audiences”, now fluffy romantic competition – you may all laugh, but NO ONE expected “Maid in Manhattan” to beat Nemesis in 2001 either…

100. Wes - August 21, 2008

“ST:TMP received mixed reviews at best and not-so-great word of mouth. If JJ Abrams has made a great movie…that happens to be about Star Trek…positive reviews and strong word of mouth can drive box office into the stratosphere. (Who the heck heard of Iron Man before May 2, 2008?)”

Remember, there was the sci fi craze! Star Wars, Moonraker, Close Encounters

” 92. Anthony Pascale – August 21, 2008

RE: Nemesis Marketing
Nemesis was very poorly marketed in terms of both quality and quantity. I have spoken to people at Paramount who agree that they took the Trekkie audience for granted and didnt position the film well for the mainstream. The retail marketing was especially poor (Del Taco coupons…please). The last Trek film to get good marketing was First Contact. In fact by the time this new movie comes out, as far as the mainstream world will think, it is the first Trek film in over a decade. Hell most people dont even know about Enterprise.

I am very interested to see how they market this new film. They have to hit a number of demographics to make it work. We are just part of their plan.”

But, Nemesis cost the most to market? And we can make fun all we want of the Berman crew now that they are gone and we dont need to have their ear for trek news/interviews and now that a ‘cool’ new J.J. and crew have come in I hate to think what will happen if this movie fails and how everyone will be criticizing J.J and the crew, when we no longer need their interviews for trek news. Remember Berman was very successful keeping the franchise going strong for at least 8 years after Gene’s death, and he gave us some really good high quality Trek films like FC and Nemesis (Nemesis had a great score, high quality graphics,etc.) and Insurrection was good but in a different way
DS9 was great in it’s final few years and Trek was in the mainstream. Nemesis only got screwed because Paramount wanted to get rid of Berman what is this thinking that movies have to be released in Dec. or Jun.? why not bring it out in Feb? Also, when they swiched Enterprise from Wed-Fri that really did it in. Paramount knew it could not stand up against HP and LOTR it was purposeful because they wanted him out!

101. Jay - August 21, 2008

This is nothing. The one I’m actually worried about ruining is that damn Hannah Montana thing, including hogging all the digital theatres around here (which I don’t think will be a problem cause I have a feeling that Trek will be opening at my favourite theatre that has digital and Hannah Montana will be down the street at the lesser theatre). But here’s my prediction for the weekend of May 8- 10:

#1- Star Trek- $60- 70 million
#2- Hannah Montana- $35- 40 million
#3- Wolverine- $30- 35 million

This new Ruins thing will probably be at the bottom of the top ten, making like $5 million or even less.

102. Anthony Pascale - August 21, 2008

wes,
not sure where you are getting the info that Nemesis had the biggest Trek marketing spend, but I am fairly certain that is not true, especially after inflation. Maybe someone said it at the time, but from what I have been told, Paramount just assumed all the trekkies would show up in at least the same numbers as Insurrection. Regardless Nemesis was very poorly marketed and they never really tried to sell it to the mainstream.

103. The Underpants Monster - August 21, 2008

They could always squeeze in a Marina Sirtis cameo to try to reach the same demographic. ;-)

104. Charles Trotter - August 21, 2008

#83 Brett Campbell — then it would get killed by James Cameron’s Avatar :)

#85 Irishtrekkie — Rhetorical nonsense. Who said that? :)

105. Charles Trotter - August 21, 2008

#88 Jay – “The Real Jim Kirk”

Just FYI, My Big Fat Greek Wedding was the fifth highest grossing films in the US in 2002. It made $241 million here, on a $5 million budget. It also did an additional $127 million internationally. I would say that’s much better than “so-so”. ;)

As I said, though, My Life in Ruins won’t make nearly as much. It should do better than Connie and Carla since I’m assuming Ruins will actually be marketed to some degree. But it’s not likely to do much better. I would say maybe a total gross of $35 million, if that.

106. Charles Trotter - August 21, 2008

#90 bdrcarter — “Who the heck heard of Iron Man before May 2, 2008?”

Practically everybody.

#96 THX-1138 The Fandom Menace — “t doesn’t appear to be any more buzz-worthy than Sex in the City and that movie under performed.”

Actually, it over-performed. SATC opened with $57 million and has thus far earned $152 million. Its worldwide gross currently sits at $386.9 million. Its budget? A mere $65 million. No, I wouldn’t say it underperformed. :)

107. THX-1138 The Fandom Menace - August 21, 2008

I stand corrected, Charles.

I guess it was my crew of Type A male band-mates and running buddies that had me blinded to the power that is SATC. It is still my contention that it stank like French cheese on a hot day, though. And I never actually saw it. But I am entitled to my un-informed opinion.

My prediction:

I Got Ruined in Greece will put up Sisterhood of the Travelling Pants II type numbers. (now you’re gonna tell me it did 100 jillion domestically and 500 gazillion worldwide)

108. Kevin B. - August 21, 2008

I think Trek has a chance of being #1 in its weekend, but will face STRONG competition from Wolverine. While it’s true X3 sucked, Wolverine is easily the most popular character from the films, and it probably has a chance of making $100 million its opening weekend, like X3 did.

Hannah Montana will not be as big a factor as many seem to think it will. I see it pulling in $30-$40 mil its first weekend, than a large dropoff.

Which brings us to Trek, which will probably not as big of an opening weekend as Wolverine. Even if it is marketed as new and different from older Star Trek, it still is Star Trek, and that may turn some people off to it, as they won’t see the difference really. I could be completely wrong about this (and I hope I am), but I don’t see it being a gigantic blockbuster. I see a $40-$50 million opening weekend, and probably a $140 million total (domestically) by the end of the summer.

As for Terminator: Salvation, it may seem odd to say, but Christian Bale could very well make that a huge success, even without Arnold. People will probably be interested to see him in a different role after TDK, and a summer movie like this is perfect for that.

Angels & Demons I do not at all see being that big. Even though The Da Vinci Code made a lot of money, the reviews (by press and everyday people) were very poor, and that will probably hurt it big time. The only thing it has going for it is Tom Hanks, though he’s not the big star he once was.

109. Jay - "The Real Jim Kirk" - August 21, 2008

#105 thanks Charles, wow im suprised about that, It wasn’t such a hit over here. I stand corrected with my “so-so” comment :P

110. Charles Trotter - August 21, 2008

#107 THX-1138 & #109 Jay – “The Real Jim Kirk”

Glad I could help. :)

THX-1138: I agree, Sex and the City sucked immensely. As for Sisterhood II, that flick opened with $19.6 million over its first five days (it opened on a Wednesday). It made $10.7 million in its Friday-Sunday skew and currently stands at $34.7 million. I actually expect My Life in Ruins to earn a bit less than that. :)

111. THX-1138 The Fandom Menace - August 21, 2008

As far as Wolverine is concerned, I have seen almost as much apathy as anticipation for it. Yes, Wolverine was the real draw for X-Men, but he was in all of them. I don’t get the logic that his character’s origin story will be a bigger draw. From the advance trailer i have seen, i didn’t really get a sense of Wowee! Must See!

But maybe I’m just geting a wee bit burned out on comic book flicks. To paraphrase T’Pau, “The box office is the box office. What can be done?”

112. krikzil - August 21, 2008

>>Once again we have people predicting a bad movie based on nothing.

I don’t think people are saying the movie will be bad, they are just concerned that no matter how good it is, it won’t perform as well as we need it to do, to keep the franchise going. Paramount spent a lot of money — too much in my opinion — and it will have to be simply HUGE to make a profit. Too many eggs in one basket.

I don’t have interest in X-Men yet even I want to see Wolverine because I like the actor. I thought T3 was an abomination yet because of the machine war and again the actor, I want to see this too. I’m just not sure Trek has that mainstream appeal. I work in the Criminal Justice system and encounter pretty much every type of person from the criminal, the crazy, cops, firefighters, doctors, attorneys, teachers, construction workers and more and since there’s always a lot of Court downtime, I engage in small talk. Often it turns to movies and tv. I’ve been sneaking Trek into conversations lately and it has kinda worried me that Trek is so off the radar. What also surprised me is that many don’t know who the hell JJ is. Apparently a lot of folks can like a tv show or film but never care to find out who made it. (weird but then I guess that’s what separates us “fans”)

Captain_Neill — I’m sorry I missed you too!!! I had a blast at the con and I loved Nimoy & Quinto on the stage, It was even better than the Grand Slam earlier in the year. But I did see you cause I had my binoculars checking out folks who asked the questions. I remember the exchange with Malcolm!

113. pat - August 21, 2008

between the annoying hannah montana, and the prequel for wolfverine, star trek will be the clear winner on the weekend it premires but, the fourth terminator? the third week for star trek will be tough. but i’m sure, kirk and spock will beat john connor and the terminators.

114. AJ - August 21, 2008

I think the jury’s out on Wolverine. X-men 3 disappointed, so they are taking Wolverine out of that environment (no Patrick Stewart, or school, etc.) and focusing on his origin. They’ll probably try to make him into Batman. I wonder if they’ll give him the yellow and blue costume.

His big minus in 2009: He can’t fly. Even Batman “flies” using his cape, and flying provides a chance for FX, and oohs and aaahs in the cinema.

Trek’s big “undecided” is the overseas market. Certain EU member states will run to see this, but China, Russia, the Middle East, SE Asia, Africa, South and Central America? in these territories, it amounts to a full franchise launch, I’m afraid.

115. S. John Ross - August 21, 2008

Speaking as a big Star Trek fan, I gotta admit that I am _ as of this moment _ leaning toward “My Life in Ruins” as the movie I’d be more certain to see, and more certain to see first. Things could change as I learn more about the Trek film, of course. At this point I still have high hopes for Trek and I still love the casting, but there’s still about a 66% chance of me just waiting to rent it and see it at home. I have decided absolutely that, unlike the last two Trek films, I won’t be skipping it entirely … I _will_ at least rent it, even if the reviews are negative. So that alone has put it higher on the totem pole than other Trek outings :)

Wolverine is part of a franchise I will never trust again without overwhelmingly good reviews and lots of personal reassurances from friends who know my tastes well. Unless that happens, it’s a _maybe_ rent, _maybe_ ignore entirely.

A new Terminator flick would, in my eyes, benefit greatly from my utter lack of high expectations and my general lack of investment in the setting. I’d probably see it expecting some lightly amusing summer-movie crap and pleasantly surprised if it was anything other. 100% chance of a ticket sale with me if I had nothing better to do that night, because it doesn’t _need_ to be a good movie to satisfy me. Sad but true.

116. captain_neill - August 22, 2008

112- krikzil

Will you be heading to the convention again? Next time we will def have to meet up.

Was kicking myself for not meeting up.

Did you say you were in Captain’s Package?

NEILL

117. krikzil - August 22, 2008

>>Will you be heading to the convention again? Next time we will def have to meet up.

Yes captain_neill I will be attending despite the lack of STTE. I figure a lot of the new cast will be invited to the con and that’s always fun. I love seeing the actors’ first con appareances. Quinto has handled it so fabulously.

I will probably just do the Preferred Weekend thing though next year. No experience, no need for the party. Save myself some $.

118. Mike 1701 - August 22, 2008

#32

Did Paramount move TREK to May, ’09 because they really think it can make more money, or did they move it because they are thin in the summer ’09 blockbuster department?

119. Mike 1701 - August 22, 2008

#37

True, but the last several TREK films were disappointing too, so why doesn’t your logic apply to it as well?

120. Mike 1701 - August 22, 2008

I feel TREK has too much baggage: 1) Trekkies; 2) Paramount under valuing past TREK films with lame budgets in the past and letting it go on way too long; 3) People associate TREK with TV more than movies.

Given these, the economy and limited spending power, the average person might likely select something he or she feels is more slam-bang and more likely entertaining–based on past TREK films, TREK is a secondary choice. By putting the film in the circle of other winning films, I feel Paramount has possibly erred. Sure, it’s easy to think that a 160 million budget, JJ Abrams, a new cast, a summer release, will erase the past, but I see no evidence the public cares about these things; they want to see a good movie and given past TREK films, it’s going to be hard to win them over; not impossible, but hard.

The last X-Men, Terminator, Da Vinci and TREK films were major disappointments–all movie franchises produce bad films, but people still come back to them. I feel TREK will have a harder task bringing in the audience than these other films franchises.

When movie goers look at that marquee to select a film to see, it would have been a lot better in TREKs favor if less direct competition was up there on the marquee to choose from.

Christmas ’08 offered limited choices and less competition and would have been a better decision in my book. This may be a case where Paramount has over-valued TREK, which they have done before pitting Nemesis in the wake of LOTR). I’m glad they have confidence in the new film, but are they doing it at the wrong time and is the reason for the move really because of confidence, or because their ’09 summer schedule is thin?

121. Christopher Seeley - August 23, 2008

I know this movie will be good. It has a great cast one hell of a director and it is due! Trek never left it was just on hiatus. I am glad there won’t be any stiff competition for it.

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