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TrekMovie Takes An In-Depth Look At The ‘Star Trek’ Competition in May 2009

According to the original plan, the new Star Trek movie was set to open in just a week, but earlier this year Paramount decided to move the film to May 2009 to take advantage of the more lucrative, and more competitive, Summer movie season. Today TrekMovie examines some of the heavy competition, including taking a look at some new previews. [Spoilers] 

 

Past Trek summers
Summer is the season for big movies and so it is a big vote of confidence on the part of Paramount to give “Star Trek” the tent pole treatment. In recent years Trek films have been ‘medium sized,’ coming out in the Thanksgiving to Christmas season. However Trek was a bigger film franchise in the eighties and three of the four films from that decade (II, III, & V) were summer releases (with mixed results). "Star Trek II" had the top opening weekend of 1982 and went on to be the 6th highest grossing film of the year, while "Star Trek III" ended up ranked 9th for 1984. However “Star Trek V” was a disappointment, ranking as the 25th highest grosser for 1989 after getting crushed by films like “Batman,” and the third “Indiana Jones” movie (along with its own bad reviews).

Of course, the real key to success is being a good film and so even with strong competition a film can do well. "Star Trek II" opened in the same month as "Poltergeist" and "E.T." and ended up between the two in the top 10. But it is always good to keep an eye on what else is out there.

May 2009 – Genre fest
The month of May 2009 will see the release of several high-profile movies, including other Sci-Fi films or genre films and also a lot of ‘counter programming’ of family films and comedies each weekend.

May 2009 – films in wide release
May 1 "X-Men Origins: Wolverine"
(Fox – action / adventure)
"Ghosts of Girlfriends Past"
(New Line- fantasy comedy)
May 8

 

"Star Trek"
(Paramount – sci-fi adventure)
"My Life in Ruins"
(Fox Searchlight – comedy)
"Wild Child"
(Universal – comedy)
"Next Day Air"
(Summit – comedy)
May 15 

 

"Angels & Demons"
(Sony/Columbia – thriller)
"Bruno"
(Universal – comedy)
May 22  "Terminator Salvation"
(Warner Bros. –  sci-fi action)
"Night at the Museum II: Escape from the Smithsonian"
(Fox – family adventure)
May 29  "Up"
(Disney/Pixar – animation)
"Drag Me to Hell"
(Universal – horror)

Box office battle of the weekends
Today film’s earnings are judged on a combination of box office receipts and home sales (DVD, TV rights, etc), but box office still dominates. It cannot be over-estimated how important the opening weekend is for big summer movies, especially when positioned close to strong competition. For example, "X-Men 3," the highest grossing film in the X-Men franchise, made $102.8 million in its opening domestic weekend, which was 44% of its total $234 million domestic take. However, follow-up weekends can also be critical. "Batman Begins" opened at $48.7 million, but that was only 24% of its total domestic take of $205 million. It is rare for summer films to win two weekends in a row, but follow up sales over the weeks following release make or break a film, making both word of mouth as well as the competition, of key importance.

Although there are quite a few movies in May, the main competition for the genre audience will primarily come from  the other franchise films: "X-Men Origins: Wolverine", and "Terminator Salvation". Trek will also have to do well against the Tom Hanks "DaVinci Code"  follow up on May 15th." So lets take a closer at those three films.

May 1: X-Men Origins: Wolverine [Budget: n/a]
This fourth film in the franchise, directed by Gavin Hood ("Rendition") from a script by David Benioff ("Kite Runner"), leads up to the events of the first "X-Men" movie. "X-MEN ORIGINS: WOLVERINE" tells the story of Wolverine (Hugh Jackman) and his violent and romantic past, his complex relationship with Victor Creed, and the ominous Weapon X program. Along the way, Wolverine encounters many mutants, both familiar and new, including surprise appearances by several legends of the X-Men universe whose appearances in the film series have long been anticipated.

Prior Films in the Franchise

  • "X-Men" (2000) – $296.3 million worldwide
    [Budget: $75 million]
  • "X2: X-Men United" (2003) – $407.6 million worldwide
    [Budget: $110 million]
  • "X-Men: The Last Stand" (2006) – $459.3 million worldwide
    [Budget: $210 million]
  • Total: $1.16 billion

X-MEN ORIGINS: WOLVERINE HD

Watch the trailer in high definition at MySpace

Wolverine and the X-Men

In The News

Photo Gallery

Analysis
With the exception of the surprise Comic-Con screening, 20th Century Fox has been relatively silent in their promotion of ‘Wolverine’. That has changed in recent weeks, with the studio finally releasing some material, mostly images, and then finally debuting the first trailer attached to "The Day the Earth Stood Still" last Friday (and reluctantly putting the trailer online this week). Except for Jackman, this film is from a new and less tested team and so it may not perform as well as the previous films in the series. Jackman (Wolverine) will be hosting "The 81st Annual Academy Awards" in February so he could get a boost from that and there is a new animated series scheduled to premiere next summer, titled "Wolverine and the X-Men" which could help. However, although the last two X-Men films have done well, both had big drop-offs in their second weekends, which would be good news for "Star Trek."
 

May 8: Star Trek [Budget: $135-150 million]
This one you know, Paramount’s big releaunch of the Trek film franchise with an origin of The Original Series era with a bit of time travel thrown in. Directed by JJ Abrams from a script from the "Transformers" team of Roberto Orci and Alex Kurtzman the film features a cast of young semi-stars, led by Chris Pine as Kirk and Zachary Quinto as Spock, joined by some more familiar faces such as Winona Ryder (Amanda), Bruce Greenwood (Pike) and of course Leonard Nimoy (elder Spock).

Prior Films in the Franchise

  • "Star Trek: The Motion Picture" (1979) – $139 million worldwide
    [Budget: $35 million]
  • "Star Trek II: The Wrath of Khan" (1982) – $96.8 million worldwide
    [Budget: $11.2-12 million]
  • "Star Trek III: The Search for Spock" (1984) – $87 million worldwide
    [Budget: $18 million]
  • "Star Trek IV: The Voyage Home" (1986) – $133 million worldwide
    [Budget: $24 million]
  • "Star Trek V: The Final Frontier" (1989) – $70.2 million worldwide
    [Budget: $30 million]
  • "Star Trek VI: The Undiscovered Country" (1991) – $96.9 million worldwide
    [Budget: $27 million]
  • "Star Trek: Generations" (1994) – $120 million worldwide
    [Budget: $35-38 million]
  • "Star Trek: First Contact" (1996) – $150 million worldwide
    [Budget: $46 million]
  • "Star Trek: Insurrection" (1998) – $117.8 million worldwide
    [Budget: $58-70 million]
  • "Star Trek: Nemesis" (2002) – $67.3 million worldwide
    [Budget: $60 million]
  • Total: $1.08 Billion

Here is the trailer, if you forgot:

Analysis
In our last competition update in September, TrekMovie noted that the secrecy behind the "Star Trek" was running the risk of cutting into the promotion of the film, but with all the promotional activity in October and November, the buzz on Trek is already outpacing "Wolverine" and the film should fare well in its opening weekend. One extra bonus in Trek’s favor is that it looks to be the only May film to get the IMAX treatment, so it will have no competition on those screens, giving it a bit of a boost. A key factor is foreign markets. This is the first Trek film to get a truly global premiere. Past Trek films have been hit and miss overseas, but for this film to be a success it will have to do better than any Trek film has ever done, including non-English speaking markets. JJ Abrams already started to address this with his recent tour of Europe and more international efforts are expected from Paramount.

 

May 15: Angels & Demons [Budget: n/a]
The team behind the global phenomenon "The Da Vinci Code" returns for the highly anticipated "Angels & Demons," based upon the bestselling novel by Dan Brown. Tom Hanks reprises his role as Harvard religious expert Robert Langdon, who once again finds that forces with ancient roots are willing to stop at nothing, even murder, to advance their goals. Ron Howard again directs the film, which is produced by Brian Grazer, Ron Howard, and John Calley. The screenplay is by David Koepp and Akiva Goldsman.

The film follows Langdon who discovers evidence of the resurgence of an ancient secret brotherhood known as the Illuminati – the most powerful underground organization in history – he also faces a deadly threat to the existence of the secret organization’s most despised enemy: the Catholic Church. When Langdon learns that the clock is ticking on an unstoppable Illuminati time bomb, he jets to Rome, where he joins forces with Vittoria Vetra, a beautiful and enigmatic Italian scientist. Embarking on a nonstop, action-packed hunt through sealed crypts, dangerous catacombs, deserted cathedrals, and even to the heart of the most secretive vault on earth, Langdon and Vetra will follow a 400-year-old trail of ancient symbols that mark the Vatican’s only hope for survival.

Prior Films in the Franchise

  • "The Da Vinci Code" (2006) – $758.2 million worldwide
    [Budget: $125 million]

Trailer

High Definition

In the News

Photo Gallery

Analysis
"Angels & Demons", Sony’s prequel follow-up to 2006’s highly successful ‘Da Vinci Code’ could cause trouble for "Star Trek" because it comes out just a week after. "The Da Vinci Code" opened to an impressive $77.1 million and "Angels & Demons" is adapted from another of Dan Brown’s novels, and as such, carries with it another strong and devoted fan base. Yet another reason why the first week’s gross is so important–the audience may move on to another film. However, "Angels & Demons" is more of a thriller and should be targeting an older audience than Trek. One area where "Angels & Demons" is a bigger threat is the global markets. "The DaVinci Code" made over 70% of its money outside the US and Canada and this film should be a strong performer as well, especially Europe.
 

May 22: Terminator Salvation [Budget: $185-200 million]
In the highly anticipated new installment of "The Terminator" film franchise, set in post-apocalyptic 2018, Christian Bale (aka Batman) stars as John Connor, the man fated to lead the human resistance against Skynet and its army of Terminators. But the future Connor was raised to believe in is altered in part by the appearance of Marcus Wright (Sam Worthington), a stranger whose last memory is of being on death row. Connor must decide whether Marcus has been sent from the future, or rescued from the past. As Skynet prepares its final onslaught, Connor and Marcus both embark on an odyssey that takes them into the heart of Skynet’s operations, where they uncover the terrible secret behind the possible annihilation of mankind. The film is directed by McG ("Charlie’s Angels") from a script by Paul Haggis ("Quantum of Solace") and Shawn Ryan (creator of the edgy FX cop show "The Shield").

Prior Films in the Franchise

  • "The Terminator" (1984) – $78.4 million worldwide
    [Budget: $6.4 million]
  • "Terminator 2: Judgment Day" (1991) – $519.8 million worldwide
    [Budget: $102 million]
  • "Terminator 3: Rise of the Machines" (2003) – $433.4 million worldwide
    [Budget: $200 million]
  • Total: $1.03 billion

Teaser Trailer

High Definition: 480p, 720p, 1080p

Trailer #2

High Definition: 480p, 720p, 1080p

In The News

Set Visit Reports

Photo Gallery

 

Analysis
While buzz has only now begun for ‘Wolverine’, the same cannot be said for "Terminator Salvation".  Warner Bros. has been much more effective at getting the word out for the upcoming film.  Director McG has been out in the press frequently giving interviews, there have been various set visits and overall reports from the film have been very positive.  While we always knew that Halcyon planned for "Terminator Salvation" to be the first of three new films, the production company surprised many last week when they announced that they had already begun development with McG on the sequel.  The decision was made due to the positive studio, fan and media reaction to recently released footage.  In most cases, having the franchise on TV and film would seem to be a good thing, but the problem with the film’s TV sibling "Terminator: The Sarah Connor Chronicles" is that the series is experiencing poor ratings, and may not be around by the time "Terminator Salvation" hits the big screen next summer. Regardless this film will can cut into ‘the legs’ of "Star Trek" going into its third weekend and beyond, especially in foreign markets where past Terminator films have performed well.
 

What’s the Buzz?
There are various ways to measure the buzz, we’re going to take a quick glance at two different measures. First up, IMDb’s MOVIEmeter Top 25 Films of 2008 measures "search behavior of over 57 million users of IMDb.com."  Only two films that we’re interested in are in that top 25 list; "Star Trek" at #22 and "Terminator Salvation" at #17.  That corresponds nicely with the assumption that these two sci-fi action films will be going after very similar audiences.  What’s also encouraging is that only 7 of 25 films on the list are from 2009 or beyond, indicating that buzz is building for "Star Trek".

Now let’s take a glance at Google Trends (showing both search volume as well as news story volume) focusing on ‘Wolverine’, "Star Trek" and ‘Terminator’ over the last 30 days–click for details:

With the exception of a strong spike around November when the second trailer was released, buzz has been relatively stable and "Star Trek" has maintained equal or stronger buzz than its two main rivals.  You’ll notice the spikes at the end of the graph for both ‘Terminator’ and ‘Wolverine’.  Those correspond to the movie trailers released for both films.  They look strong, but when you take a glance at a graph charting the entire year, they pale in comparison to the spike "Star Trek" received in November when the first full-length trailer was released–click for details:

That implies that the trailer didn’t only reach hard-core Trek fans, but a wider general audience.  There’s also been a heavier presence in promotional material for Trek.  None of the aforementioned films have tie-in campaigns in place, while "Star Trek" already has a presence at Intel’s website, a planned comic book release and a toy campaign.

Bottom Line
Firstly, although this article is about competition, there do not always have to be winners and losers. Quite often multiple films with close release dates end up successful (for example "Transformers" and "Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix" opened within a week of each other and both ended up in the top five in 2007). That being said, assuming Paramount continues to give the new "Star Trek" movie the big promotional treatment and assuming it has good word of mouth, the next Trek is well positioned to be one of the top film’s of 2009. Trek should be certain to win its opening weekend, especially with the pattern of past X-Men film drop-offs. The key to success will be to see how it splits the box office "Angels and Demons" in the second week and how deeply "Terminator Salvation" cuts into the legs of Trek for its third weekend and going into June. Right now it looks like Trek’s biggest challenge will be overseas markets, especially going into its second and third weekends when it goes up against franchises that have had more success overseas.

All in all May 2009 looks like a great month for movie and genre fans, and "Star Trek" can be at the top of that list.

 

Sort by:   newest | oldest
DancesWithKlingons
December 17, 2008 6:34 pm

Could care less about another X-Men movie.
T4, why bother! T3 was lame.

Star Trek LIVES!!!!

December 17, 2008 6:34 pm

should be a good opening to the month. do well trek, may the force be with you, i mean, er…

Andy Geisel
December 17, 2008 6:35 pm

I think it’s partly positioning and partly a result of the film being pretty behind in production and post-production. From what I gather, I don’t think they’d have been ready for a holiday 2008 open and could use the extra time to finish the film for Memorial Day. Probably better that way. If Paramount’s got a ton of $$$ invested (and they arguably do), they need to do everything they can to make sure it’s a hit.

December 17, 2008 6:38 pm

Andy

You can have your own opinions but not your own facts. The STAR TREK film ended production on time and the film is almost finished, they have stayed on the same schedule since the change of date. The decision was 100% about Paramount filling out their summer season in 2009, especially following the wga strike. JJ Abrams and Bad Robot were not part of the decision and he and his team have continued on with their original schedule, although they are not killing themselves to have it done, but it should be totally in the can within a few weeks or even days

Decker Unit
December 17, 2008 6:40 pm

If Angels & Demons is as bad an adaptation as The DaVinci Code, it should cause no trouble for Star Trek

Decker's Stubble
December 17, 2008 6:43 pm

Wolverine on Omaha Beach? Shaving Private Ryan?

CmdrR
December 17, 2008 6:46 pm

That’s the stuff that keeps board rooms boring. I KNOW they must do this kind of analysis, but the movie-loving kid in me just screams: “Ride a horse, shoot a bad guy, kiss a girl but not too much, and give us a fun time at the movies.”

I also have no interest in T4 — way too confused already. Angels and Demons and the Pixar thing look like they may be worthwhile. I find it interesting that ST will be facing off against three comedies. So… the guys are thinking: “Do I want to get ___d or do I want to see some great action on screen?” For all the posturing, I don’t think ST will have mass appeal for most women. I’m not counting our wonderful company of Quinto/Nimoy droollettes, but rather the general audiences. Every movie has hunks. Why would they choose a noisy space opera over a silly comedy? I dunno. We’ll see. I hope I’m wrong.

Richard Daystrom
December 17, 2008 6:47 pm

The only thing that helps any movie is word of mouth. If the Star Trek is good they will come.

RTC
December 17, 2008 6:47 pm

Terrific analysis, Rosario, well done!

CmdrR
December 17, 2008 6:50 pm

Nia Vardalos and Mos Def… Um, maybe it’ll be a good weekend for Trek afterall.

VOODOO
December 17, 2008 6:54 pm

Decker Unit #5

The Da Vinci was a pretty bad film and it still grossed $758,239,851 worldwide. The last Star Trek film grossed $67,312,826 before quickly disappearing from theatres.

It could case a major problem for Star Trek.

If I were a betting man I would say that “Angels and Demons” will be much bigger worldwide than Star Trek.

I

AirForcePA
December 17, 2008 6:58 pm

The terminators in the first T4 picture look like Borg in alcoves…hmmm…a bit of Trek inspiration???

I’m not going to lie though…as much as this article tries to play down the Wolverine movie, I think it looks pretty awesome!

Dom
December 17, 2008 7:10 pm

I’ll definitely go to see Star Trek and Terminator. No question about it. I’m not some nerdy obsessive who thinks Star Trek deserves special attention. Chances are I’ll see both more than once. I’m pretty sure my parents will see Trek in the cinema, while I’ll probably show then Terminator on DVD!

No interest in Angels and Demons. I love religious thrillers, but Dan Brown has made up loads of nonsense about the Catholic Church and real organisations such as Opus Dei to fit his badly-written stories! William Peter Blatty did the research necessary for a book and film like The Exorcist, while Dan Brown is simply producing fiction dressed up as fact. Even worse, the BBC reported Brown’s depiction of Opus Dei as fact a while back!

Not sure about Wolverine. I like the X-Men, although I think the first two movies are way overrated and the presence of Brett Ratner on a film is enough to put me off, even if I love the franchise!! I’ll wait until I hear more about Wolverine before I decide whether or not to go the straight-to-DVD route, which is what I suspect will happen!

I’m hoping Star Trek will do well. I think it’ll attract a bigger age range than Terminator and Angels & Demons. Wolverine could be a threat with the younger age group, though!

Brett Campbell
December 17, 2008 7:13 pm

I dunno … I think “Night at the Museum II” will crush all these competitors to dust… ;D

Dr. Image
December 17, 2008 7:18 pm

In other words, there won’t be any competition.
Ha!

falcon
December 17, 2008 7:21 pm

@11,

You’re comparing apples and oranges. “The DaVinci Code” opened on May 19, 2006. The last Star Trek film, “Nemesis,” was released on Dec. 13, 2002. So they were nearly four years apart. Secondly, there was quite a bit more buzz about “The DaVinci Code” because of Dan Brown’s book and the tandem of Tom Hanks starring and Ron Howard directing (the team behind “Apollo 13”). The Trek buzz had begun to wane thanks to Voyager (and Enterprise had only premiered a year before), and lots of folks believed Trek had reached its saturation point. So there was a lot working for “DaVinci” and a lot working against “Trek”. I don’t think you can take that situation and equate it to the competition between Trek XI and “Angels and Demons.” It’s two totally different things, and the first time the two “franchises” have gone head-to-head.

Brett Campbell
December 17, 2008 7:25 pm

16 – Also, while I am not much of a TNG or any of the spin-offs fan and more of a TOS purist, I am also a huge Tolkien enthusiast.

Pitting “Nemesis” against “The Return of the King” was not a prudent marketing move, even if it came out a week or two earlier than the final LotR installment.

December 17, 2008 7:27 pm

Very impressive article. Graphs, statistics and more. I look forward to Wolverine but still wish Star Trek had been this Christmas.

Gavvo
December 17, 2008 7:30 pm

Wolverine is going to squash trek

December 17, 2008 7:33 pm

Armchair analysis aside, I think T4 might be a keeper. I’m sure we’ll do the Netflix thing with all of them, but Trek is really the only one that we’ll see on the big screen. I have an opening night attendance streak going that literally dates back to 1979, and I EXPECT to see another in a long string of entertaining movies. Capiche, Messrs. Abrams and Orci? LOL :-)

Gavvo
December 17, 2008 7:33 pm

and so is T4

bad move sandwich Trek between two established franchises…

JB
December 17, 2008 7:37 pm

I thought ST was getting a pretty big budget til I saw the figures for the last X-Men and Terminator films. Amazing.

sean
December 17, 2008 7:40 pm

#14

The first NATM made nearly 600 mil, so I wouldn’t be surprised.

Am I the only one slightly bored at the T4 trailer? TSCC is so good, and apparently no one is watching. Giant Terminators don’t really interest me.

sean
December 17, 2008 7:44 pm

#19

I’m not sure that’s true. Wolverine on his lonesome + very bad X-Men 3 makes it an uncertain property. Also, are we to believe Liev Schrieber turns into Tyler Mane? Seriously?

4 8 15 16 23 42
December 17, 2008 7:47 pm

Terminator 3 sucked because it was poorly conceived (so much so that the Sarah Connor Chronicles ignored it). Terminator 4, as I understand it, is going to be consistent with T2 and SCC, so I’m excited about seeing it. (Only marginally less excited than seeing STXI makes me.)

The TOS Purist aka The Purolator
December 17, 2008 7:53 pm

T3 was so horrible they erased it from continuity. I was feeling hopeful about T:Salvation, but after watching that trailer…ugh. Looks like it’s just trying to capitalize on the Transformers crowd and misses the point of the Terminator movies NOT being pure action films, but powerful dramas that happen to have action in them.

Jai1138
December 17, 2008 7:55 pm

I know there are wizards at Paramount paid handsomely to balance budgets against carefully calculated box office returns but unless the new TREK is a genuinely good film (as early reports suggest) and unless it can avoid being marginalized as geek-stuff (and early mainstream press like EW suggest alot of interest) and, most importantly, and ethereally, it can somehow click into the popular imagination of wherever we are in the spring/summer of 2009, then the movie probably won’t make much more than $150-175 domestically and maybe another $30-50 million internationally.

Personally, I’m hoping for the best. Despite my trepidations about the possibility of an “alternative reality” plotline, nearly everything about it suggests something really special. Here’s hoping for around a $350 million worldwide take and 2 damn good sequels.

Gavvo
December 17, 2008 7:56 pm

@24

I’m basing my opinion on what I think mainstream audiences will want.

Doesn’t matter how crappy previous movies are. People like what they like.

So when you put Terminator and Wolverine up against Star Trek, I don’t see Trek winning.

December 17, 2008 7:59 pm

Anthony, another great article from your staff. You guys continue to raise the bar and come up with great ways to “follow Trek” during this period of “fallow Trek.”

Great job, Rosario. A very, very interesting read. Thank you.

Ed G.
December 17, 2008 8:01 pm

@21….and Trek is not an established franchise?

December 17, 2008 8:01 pm

I have no interest in those films. The X-Men movies have been a huge letdown IMO. WTF is that Wolverine at the D-Day landing? Huh? Terminator, frankly, I don’t understand why they keep making them? Like AVP, they are just beating the horse to death. No Arnold, no watch! Angels and Demons is likely as boring as DaVinci Code.

John Ozdundar
December 17, 2008 8:05 pm

FYI,

Nemesis was against “The Two Towers” in 2002, not “The Return of the King”. Sadly, It opened a mere five days before “Towers”. “Nemesis” on Friday and “Towers” on Wed.

Both opened well at the theatres I worked at, but “Nemesis” had no room to breathe and was forgotten by it’s second playweek.

I am really concerned that “Angels & Demons” will do something similar in “Star Trek” ‘s second week, even if the film opens huge.

I’m guessing a $50 – 65 mil opening weekend. More likely closer to the $50mil. By the second weekend something between $16 – $24 mil. Great numbers for Trek, but not necessarily enough for the fuss of a reboot nor against modern blockbusters. But I will be first in line for the midnight!

The Last Maquis
December 17, 2008 8:11 pm

Wolverine looks F’ing Rad!!!

T4, uh…..not sure.

Trek, we’ll see.

December 17, 2008 8:12 pm

29,

I agree, Rosario did a great job. . I wrote the previous ‘competition watch’ articles but thought that I should bring in Rosario, our regular ‘sci-fi saturday’ guy to handle this one, as he is our resident expert in what is going on out there.

It is our goal here to go beyond the usual ‘just link to what other sites are doing’ and try to bring unique content and analysis whenever possible

Bob Tompkins
December 17, 2008 8:14 pm

It is almost beyond reckoning that the Da Vinci Code had that big of a gross. We saw it when it was released and my wife actually snoozed about halfway through it. It actually sounds like the crew ripped off Nick Cage’s National Treasure movies to make this on, after Cage & Co. ripped off [and improved] the Da Vinci Code.
Talk about art imitating life… imitating art …or something.

An X-Men movie with just one X-Man? What other movies has Huge Jackass ever opened that made loads of money? Australia looks to challenge Star trek Nemesis in box office take with 3x the budget. It’ll do Hulk sized business, if that.

Terminator without James Cameron OR Arnie [except perhaps a digital cameo] on board? Look at the ratings for Sarah Conner Chronicles for an indication of the staying power this one will have- one weekend and out!

Star Trek will live or die by word of mouth after the first weekend, which should be ginormous. If word of mouth is good, then the Memorial Day weekend should be just as huge.
From what I’ve seen and heard, plus the fact that the buzz has finally reached my sons, who are now coming with my wife and myself to one of the first showings, I have a lot more confidence that Trek will be alive and thriving after May 09.

BK613
December 17, 2008 8:20 pm

17
32
In addition to the LOTR movie, Gangs of New York opened that weekend not to mention the fact that the second Harry Potter film was only on its 6th week of release. And Di Another Day (a Bond film) was on week five. Given all this, who Paramount thought would show up for this movie (besides fans) is beyond me.

December 17, 2008 8:22 pm

Gotta love the trailer for “Wolverine And The X-Men:”

“There’s a war comin’, and it ain’t gonna be pretty!”

Well duh! Who writes this stuff? LOL

BK613
December 17, 2008 8:22 pm

34
Well any excuse to move that QM thread off the front page. :-)

Seriously, great job on the article guys!

The Shat in the hat
December 17, 2008 8:23 pm

Have to say Origins could be a real threat but the way it’s all been handled,it looks like Trek should please all. The date change show’s that the $$$$ peeps are pretty sure of it!

Surely nothing can go wrong?

Oh

VOODOO
December 17, 2008 8:28 pm
I for one do not like the positioning of this film at all. The original date of X-Mas 2008 seemed much friendlier of a opening than May of 2009. IThere would be almost zero high powered genre competition at the moment. If released around this time Star Trek would have had the entire stage to itself. I fully understand that opening a film in the summer is a more high profile event, but what is wrong with a film being released during the winter months? The 007 franchise was re-launched a couple of years back with “Casino Royale” I don’t think anyone is complaining the nearly $600,000,000 it made worldwide. Star Trek stands a chance of being drowned out by some truly powerful competition. Nearly all the the franchise films Star Trek will be facing have a much better recent track record than Star Trek. Wolverine – (5/1) This film will benefit from being the first major “event film” of 2009 and will have a strong opening weekend. While I do agree the film will fall off significantly in it’s second week, there may still be enough interest from a younger generation of fans who have had the series fresh in their minds from 2000 until present day to take away a good portion of Star Trek’s opening weekend. Star Trek – (5/8) How will the public react to the return of Star Trek? This is a series that has been thought to be irrelevant by the masses for a… Read more »
Xai
December 17, 2008 8:30 pm

regarding May 15: Angels & Demons…

I’ve read both this and “the Code”. I enjoyed both, although they follow a very similar formula as all of the Dan Brown novels I have read. “DaVinci” as a movie was so-so for me because it couldn’t be as rich in info as the novel. I don’t see this movie taking too many customers from Trek, even if it’s dam good.

Sisko's Shrimp Gumbo
December 17, 2008 8:33 pm

Competing against Wolverine, T4 and Angels & Demons?

Or competing against The Spirit, Valkyrie, Revolutionary Road, and The Curious Case of Benjamin Button?

I don’t see why Par thought it needed a half-year to remove Trek’s stigma

VOODOO
December 17, 2008 8:35 pm

John # 32

“Nemesis” did not “open well”

As a matter of fact it was beaten out at the box office by a new Jennifer Lopez chick flick named “Maid in Manhattan” in it’s opening weekend and it went downhill from there.

Who would have ever thought at the height of the Shatner/Nimoy films that a new Star Trek film would have been beaten out by a chick flick that belonged on the Lifetime network in it’s opening weekend?

Gene L. Coon was a U. S. Marine, and is happy TOS is back, but isn't crazy about the changes to the Enterprise
December 17, 2008 8:37 pm

So let’s see:

May 1, Wolverine wins the weekend

May 8, Star trek wins weekend, with Wolverine 2

May 15, Angels & Demons wins, interesting to see who comes in @ 2; Trek Bruno or A&D. Don’t count Bruno out.

May 22, NATM2 will crush T4. Family films are cash money in the bank, and I have four experts in my house that will make me take them. Mortal lock. T4 comes in disappointing 3rd.

May 29, Up will soar. Pixar. Nuff said.

So Star Trek is lined up for one week at #1, with word of mouth being critical. This is the strongest argument for a Shatner cameo. A well executed thrillfest that updates the franchise will win its opening weekend, but it has a real mountain to climb in busting out into the mainstream, non Trek (i.e. “Trek is geeky”) public, for the rest of May. Springing Shatner on everybody would make the movie an event. The curiosity/cultural happening of the Shatner/Nimoy reunion would definitely help the ticket sales. The shenanigans up til now are irrelevant. Continuity is irrelevant. Box office wins. And it looks like Trek will need all the help it can muster, mister. This could easily go sour.

Xai
December 17, 2008 8:45 pm

Shatner is the cure?

Sorry, he couldn’t do it. He would’t know the difference between the real script and the “fake”.

That ship sailed a long time ago.

Gene L. Coon was a U. S. Marine, and is happy TOS is back, but isn't crazy about the changes to the Enterprise
December 17, 2008 8:48 pm

Upon further review, VOODOO said what I said, but better. More words anyway. I share his skepticism. I think Wolverine will fade faster than you think. I agree that Bruno will be very big.

OH, BY THE WAY…

As has been posted numerous times here over the years, it is always best to adjust box office grosses for inflation. The winner, and still champeen in all time Star Trek movie ticket sales is (cue Blaster Beam!) Star Trek The Motion Picture!! Eat that!

MORN SPEAKS
December 17, 2008 8:48 pm

I predict $125 million domestic total, but I think if it were released this Christmas as originally intended, it would have made $175-$200 easy.

Xai
December 17, 2008 8:49 pm

42. Sisko’s Shrimp Gumbo – December 17, 2008
“Competing against Wolverine, T4 and Angels & Demons?

Or competing against The Spirit, Valkyrie, Revolutionary Road, and The Curious Case of Benjamin Button?

I don’t see why Par thought it needed a half-year to remove Trek’s stigma”

Stigma? The movie was moved to the summer tentpole position because it may have the nacelles to do very well in the box office, not because of some falsely percieved ills.

Gene L. Coon was a U. S. Marine, and is happy TOS is back, but isn't crazy about the changes to the Enterprise
December 17, 2008 8:51 pm

#45 I don’t care what Shatner says, I am pointing out that JJ’s movie needs all the help it can get. Shat is an obvious, easy little bonus just sitting out there. It cannot hurt the box office to put his puss up on the screen. I hope I am wrong, but I much fear trouble in the fuselage Frederick for our little film.

Xai
December 17, 2008 8:55 pm

Angels & Demons, I predict won’t carry through. Same author, same director, etc but do enough people know it’s the prequel to “Davinci”?

Wolverine is no Batman, especially without fellow X’ers

T4 may be strong, but IMO, the T series has lost punch, even with Bruce Wayne to the rescue.

And may I point out…. even in a sour economy, people can and DO see more than one movie in the summer.

wpDiscuz