Charles Trotter
We’re pretty much on the same page in terms of our opening weekend estimates for Trek. I’d probably leave a little more room on the low end and, at the moment at least, set the ceiling a little lower. Probably something like $45-60 million. That would put it, on average, about where the other Trek’s opened (adjusted for inflation) on the low end, and a little bit above the best Trek opening (adjusted for inflation) on the high end.

That’s gotta be the goal for Paramount, I’d say. Of course, we’ll have a better idea of how it’ll fare once we get closer to release. If I had to narrow my range down, I’d probably say something like $53-57M. $70M+ sure would be nice though (and we’ll know if that’s possible later in the game). Let’s just hope that however it opens, it’s a great movie accessible to both the hard-core Trek fans and the casual movie audience and has good legs.

As to the rest of the movies I included. To be honest, May (and much of 2009), is looking to be a really great year for sci-fi/genre movies. I’m really looking forward to Terminator Salvation and think that movie’s going to rock. I’m still very much engaged in T:SCC this season and I really like the show, but I only wish it would be doing better in the ratings. As to the others: Angels & Demons also should do quite well. X3 was a bit disappointing, so I’m not sure what to think of Wolverine yet, but the trailer is good.

And although it’s completely unrelated to this article, I can’t wait for Watchmen in March (as long as that darn trial doesn’t mess thing up).

2009’s certainly looking like a good year.

Here are the adjusted grosses in 2008 dollars. TMP rules.

Star Trek: The Motion Picture $232,027,836
Star Trek IV: The Voyage Home $209,371,691
Star Trek II: The Wrath of Khan $190,035,299
Star Trek III: The Search for Spock $161,135,418
Star Trek: First Contact $147,411,187
Star Trek: Generations $128,170,231
Star Trek VI: The Und. Country $125,941,589
Star Trek: Insurrection $105,954,929
Star Trek V: The Final Frontier $93,110,113
Star Trek: Nemesis $52,709,331

A vote of confidence in the new Star Trek movie? Wow, let me buy your ticket on opening night!

Very interesting article and thoughtful analysis. I have not kept up on T4 info nearly as much as for STXI but I have really enjoyed watching T:SCC this season (what was up with that mid-season cliffhanger?). I will be curious to see how/if those two facets of the franchise link up; that will be my primary motivation for going to see the new movie. I hope we at least hear Arnold….

Angels & Demons was written before the Da Vinci Code and well before Nick Cage’s Indy ripoffs were even a glint in the studio’s eye. I agree Da Vinci Code was a clunker, but they couldn’t rip off something that didn’t exist yet.

By the way, great work on this article, Rosario. I enjoyed it. :)

I find it interesting that the three big sci-fi\fantasy genre releases (Terminator, Wolverine, Star Trek) are, to a certain extant, efforts made by their respective creators\writers to rectify irresponsible management by their previous project leaders. I think that fervor of “We NEED to get this right” is going to make for not only competition, but some fantastic genre films this year.

I’m speaking from my own excitement of course, but Terminator, X-Men, AND Star Trek may have very well raised the bar on their own standards by this time next year!

Feel free to argue or elaborate on some of these ideas guys!

- 24th CRS

Wow!!

Your analysis is very quite impressive.